Quick Answer

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The Takahashi-Alexander model is a method used to forecast how capital may flow into and out of private investment funds over time.

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It helps investors estimate:

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• Future capital calls
• Future distributions
• Remaining NAV
• Private-market liquidity requirements

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For family offices with many private-fund commitments, it can help answer a very practical question:

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How much cash might we need to keep available for future capital calls?

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Why Is a Model Necessary?

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When a family commits $10 million to a private equity fund, the fund generally does not request all $10 million immediately.

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Capital is called over several years.

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Later, as investments are sold, distributions begin coming back.

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The resulting pattern can look roughly like:

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Commitment → Capital Calls → Investments → Distributions → Final Exit

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The timing is uncertain.

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That creates a liquidity-planning problem.

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What Does Takahashi-Alexander Do?

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The model uses assumptions about the fund to estimate future cash flows.

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Inputs can include:

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• Fund age
• Fund life
• Remaining commitment
• Capital-call pace
• Growth assumptions
• Distribution pace

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The model then estimates how capital calls, NAV and distributions could evolve over time.

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A Simple Example

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Imagine a family office has:

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$50M of unfunded private-equity commitments.

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That does not necessarily mean it needs $50 million of cash tomorrow.

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Some capital may be called this year.

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Some next year.

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Some several years later.

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Meanwhile, older funds may begin making distributions.

The family office therefore wants to forecast:

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Calls − Distributions = Expected Net Private-Market Cash Flow

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Why Family Offices Use It

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Without forecasting, a family office can make one of two mistakes.

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Hold Too Much Cash

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That creates an opportunity cost.

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Hold Too Little Cash

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The family may need to sell assets unexpectedly to fund capital calls.

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A private-market cash-flow model helps balance those risks.

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How MyFO Helps

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MyFO incorporates the Takahashi-Alexander model directly into private-fund cash-flow forecasting, helping family offices estimate future capital calls, distributions and NAV for their LP positions.

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For each LP position in MyFO, the family office can set assumptions including the:

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• Distribution rate
• Yield rate
• Bow factor

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MyFO then uses those assumptions to forecast expected cash flows for the underlying investment over time.

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These forecasts can be viewed at the individual position level, fund level or aggregated across the family's entire private-markets portfolio. This allows a family office to move beyond looking at each fund in isolation and understand the combined liquidity requirements and expected distributions across all of its private investments.

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MyFO can then bring those forecasts together with cash flows from the family's other investments and assets, providing a more complete picture of expected liquidity across the portfolio.

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This helps family offices answer questions such as:

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How much liquidity will we need to meet expected capital calls?
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When are we expecting distributions from our private investments?
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When could our private portfolio become cash-flow positive?
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Do we have enough liquidity to make another private-market commitment?
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What happens to our overall cash position if distributions arrive later than expected?

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Forecasts are estimates rather than guarantees, but combining the Takahashi-Alexander model with actual portfolio data gives family offices a more structured way to forecast private-market cash flows and plan liquidity across the entire family portfolio.

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In One Sentence

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The Takahashi-Alexander model estimates when private funds may call capital, distribute capital and change in value so investors can plan liquidity more effectively.

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